Current stock and bond market timing and trading system signals
"We only hunt down valuable targets ...
... and our "designated target" ...
consistent profits!"
Current signals
Stock risk index
Bond risk index
Free subscription
Random trading
Value at risk
Trading tips
Financial literature
Risk disclaimer

FREE Newsletter:
Subscribe to our free weekly email newsletter and receive all current market timing signals and market risk indications.
Email address:

Bear market 2000 - 2003 - Irrational Exuberance

On this page you will find charts, which are illustrating the trends of important market indicators during the bear market 2000 - 2003 (the era of so called: "irrational exuberance").

Please refer also to our most often visited web pages:
  • Current stock and bond market timing signals indicating the actual weekly trading positions of our stock and bond trading systems - switching systematically between a full investment position (buying stocks or bonds) and a cash position.
  • Current stock market risk indices indicating the actual weekly risk of global and regional stock market investments on an aggregated basis in percentage points.

On 24.03.2000, the S&P 500© Index reached a high of 1552.87 points before declining to a low print of 768.63 points on 10.10.2002. So the S&P 500© Index lost 50.50% during this bear market.

In spring 2003 the low was tested once again and the bear market came to an end.

Some possible reasons for the bear market 2000 - 2003:
  • Greed or so-called "Irrational Exuberance" - © by Alan Greenspan - 05.12.1996 - "The Challenge of Central Banking in a Democratic Society" - At the Annual Dinner and Francis Boyer Lecture of The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, Washington, D.C. - " ... But how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions as they have in Japan over the past decade? ..."
  • Significant deteriorating "market breadth" (e.g.: Advance-Decline-Line) because of non-confirmation of new all time highs of stock index.
  • ...

The US stock market:
Stock index
Implied volatility
Advance decline line
New Highs - New Lows

30 Year US treasury bonds:
Treasury bond futures
30 Year US treasury bond yield

3M US Treasury bills yield:
3M US treasury bills

US gold price:
Gold price

Commodity index
NYMEX crude oil

US dollar:
US dollar

Price-earnings-ratio (P/E) for US stocks:
PE Ratio

Dividend yield for US stocks:
Dividend yield

Trademarks and copyrights mentioned on this web page are the ownership of their respective companies. The names of products and services presented are used only in an educational fashion and to the benefit of the trademark and copyright owner, with no intention of infringing on trademarks or copyrights.
We are providing this web site and its information for guidance and information purposes only. This web site is not intended to provide investment, tax, or legal advice.
All information contained herein has been compiled from different sources deemed reliable and it is accurate to the best of our knowledge and belief; however, we cannot guarantee as to its accuracy, completeness and validity and cannot be held liable for any errors or omissions. Changes are periodically made to this web site and may be made at any time.
All information contained herein should be independently verified and confirmed.
We do not accept any liability for any loss or damage howsoever caused in reliance upon such information.
Reader agrees to indemnify and hold us harmless from and against any damages, costs and expenses, including any legal fees, potentially resulting from the application of any of the information provided by us. This disclaimer applies to any damages or injury caused by any failure of performance, error, omission, interruption, deletion, defect, delay in operation or transmission, computer virus, communication line failure, theft or destruction or unauthorized access to, or use of record, whether for breach of contract, tort, negligence, or under any other cause of action. This web site has been prepared solely for informational purposes, and is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any particular trading or timing strategy.

Home | Newsletter | Disclaimer | FAQ | Sitemap | About us | Contact
Web imprint / Impressum
Copyright © 2001-2018 SMT/G. Seiberl. All rights reserved.