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Bear market 2000 - 2003 - Irrational Exuberance

On this page you will find charts, which are illustrating the trends of important market indicators during the bear market 2000 - 2003 (the era of so called: "irrational exuberance").

Please refer also to our most often visited web pages:
  • Current stock and bond market timing signals indicating the actual weekly trading positions of our stock and bond trading systems - switching systematically between a full investment position (buying stocks or bonds) and a cash position.
  • Current stock market risk indices indicating the actual weekly risk of global and regional stock market investments on an aggregated basis in percentage points.


On 24.03.2000, the S&P 500© Index reached a high of 1552.87 points before declining to a low print of 768.63 points on 10.10.2002. So the S&P 500© Index lost 50.50% during this bear market.

In spring 2003 the low was tested once again and the bear market came to an end.

Some possible reasons for the bear market 2000 - 2003:
  • Greed or so-called "Irrational Exuberance" - © by Alan Greenspan - 05.12.1996 - "The Challenge of Central Banking in a Democratic Society" - At the Annual Dinner and Francis Boyer Lecture of The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, Washington, D.C. - " ... But how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions as they have in Japan over the past decade? ..."
  • Significant deteriorating "market breadth" (e.g.: Advance-Decline-Line) because of non-confirmation of new all time highs of stock index.
  • ...

The US stock market:
Stock index
Implied volatility
Advance decline line
New Highs - New Lows

30 Year US treasury bonds:
Treasury bond futures
30 Year US treasury bond yield

3M US Treasury bills yield:
3M US treasury bills

US gold price:
Gold price

Commodities:
Commodity index
NYMEX crude oil

US dollar:
US dollar

Price-earnings-ratio (P/E) for US stocks:
PE Ratio

Dividend yield for US stocks:
Dividend yield

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