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Bond market risk index

Our bond market risk benchmark indicates the risk of global bond market investments on an aggregated basis in percentage points. A low percentage indicates a positive (rather low risk) environment and vice versa.

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Weekly bond market risk index

Current global bond market risk (21 markets)
as of 04/15/2018 - Next update: 04/22/2018
 38%  Positive / rather low risk

Global bond market risk index and crash indication
Legend
 Negative / rather high risk  60% - 100%
 Neutral / rather medium risk  40% - 60%
 Positive / rather low risk  0% - 40%


Timing global bond markets with our weekly global bond risk index

We also use our global government bond market risk index to time our investments in global government bonds.

BUY criteria: If our risk index is below or equal 50%, we are going to invest in a portfolio of 21 global bond markets.
SELL criteria: If our risk index is above 50%, we are moving our money into a cash position on the sidelines.

  • The next charts are showing hypothetical trading results from back testing. The back testing period started on 14th of April 1961. These results have certain limitations: Due to the fact that all the trades included in this back testing have not actually been executed in realtime, actual results may be different, under or over compensated for results. Generally hypothetical trading performance results are prepared with the benefit of hindsight.
  • These hypothetical returns are not compounded. That means that this timing strategy does not reinvest profits. Consequently the hypothetical total return would obviously be far larger if the returns were compounded or even by utilizing leverage.
  • No slippage, commissions and dividends were used.
Hypothetical weekly performance of an international government bond index basket, if the Global Bond Market Risk Index (GBMRI) is within a certain risk range (e.g. GBMRI < 20%, i.e. very positive) in comparison to a Buy-and-Hold-approach:
Average weekly performance of Global bond market risk index ranges
Hypothetical performance of a strategy, which invests in an international government bonds basket, if the Global Bond Market Risk Index (GBMRI) is below or equal 50% and moves to cash/money market, if the GBMRI is above 50%, compared to an Buy-and-Hold-approach:
Global bond market risk index strategy performance

IMPORTANT: This risk index is not intended to provide personal investment advice. This risk index has been prepared solely for informational purposes, and is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any particular trading or market timing strategy. This risk rating does not provide, imply, or otherwise constitute a guarantee of performance. Therefore it should not be assumed that future risk ratings will be profitable or will equal past performance, real, indicated or implied. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Please also read our detailed risk disclaimer and disclosure statement.

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