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Global and regional stock market risk indices

Our stock market risk benchmarks indicate the risk of global and regional stock market investments on an aggregated basis in percentage points. A low percentage indicates a positive (rather low risk) environment and vice versa. On the bottom of this webpage you find detailed information on how these risk indices work.

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A. Weekly global / world stock market risk index

Current weekly global stock market risk (101 markets)
as of 04/15/2018 - Next update: 04/22/2018
 37%  Positive / rather low risk

Stock market risk index
 Negative / rather high risk  60% - 100%
 Neutral / rather medium risk  40% - 60%
 Positive / rather low risk  0% - 40%

B. Weekly regional stock market risk sub indices

The regional stock market risk sub indices are derivatives of our global world stock market risk index, which currently tracks 101 world stock markets.

Weekly regional stock market risk
 USA, Canada and Western Europe (29 markets)  38%  Positive / rather low risk
 Asia/Pacific-Region (23 markets)  35%  Positive / rather low risk
 Eastern Europe and Russian Federation (16 markets)  37%  Positive / rather low risk
 Latin America (13 markets)  35%  Positive / rather low risk
 Middle East and North Africa (12 markets)  43%  Neutral / rather medium risk
 Africa (8 markets)  38%  Positive / rather low risk
 EAFE (Europe, Australia and the Far East) (21 markets)  36%  Positive / rather low risk
 Emerging markets (24 markets)  35%  Positive / rather low risk

Timing global stock markets with our weekly global stock risk index:

We also use our global risk index to time our investments in global stock markets:

BUY criteria: If our risk index is below or equal 50%, we are going to invest in a portfolio of 21 global stock markets.
SELL criteria: If our risk index is above 50%, we are moving our money into a cash position on the sidelines.

  • The next charts are showing hypothetical trading results from back testing. The back testing period started on 14th of April 1961. These results have certain limitations: Due to the fact that all the trades included in this back testing have not actually been executed in realtime, actual results may be different, under or over compensated for results. Generally hypothetical trading performance results are prepared with the benefit of hindsight.
  • These hypothetical returns are not compounded. That means that this timing strategy does not reinvest profits. Consequently the hypothetical total return would obviously be far larger if the returns were compounded or even by utilizing leverage.
  • No slippage, commissions and dividends were used.
Performance of the "Risk Index <= 50%"-Strategy and of the "Risk Index > 50%"-Strategy:

The blue line shows the cumulated hypothetical performance of our "Risk Index < 50%"-Strategy in comparison to the hypothetical performance of a buy-and-hold-approach (black line). As you can see an investment in 21 global stock markets - if our proprietary risk index is below 50% - could outperform a buy-and-hold-approach on a hypothetical basis.

On the other hand a hypothetical investment in global stocks - if our risk index is above 50% - could be not profitable as indicated by the decreasing cumulated performance (red line).

Cumulated hypothetical performance of our global risk index investment strategy since 1961
Hypothetical weekly performance of an international stock index basket, if the Global Stock Market Risk Index (GSMRI) is within a certain risk range (e.g. GSMRI < 20%, i.e. very positive) in comparison to a Buy-and-Hold-approach:
Average weekly performance of Global stock market risk index ranges
Hypothetical performance of a strategy, which invests in an international stock index basket, if the Global Stock Market Risk Index (GSMRI) is below or equal 50% and moves to cash/money market, if the GSMRI is above 50%, compared to an Buy-and-Hold-approach:
Global stock market risk index strategy performance

IMPORTANT: The risk index and the risk index timing strategy are not intended to provide personal investment advice. The risk index and the risk index timing strategy have been prepared solely for informational purposes, and are not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any particular trading or timing strategy. The risk rating and the risk index timing strategy do not provide, imply, or otherwise constitute a guarantee of performance. Therefore it should not be assumed that future risk ratings will be profitable or will equal past performance, real, indicated or implied. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Please also read our detailed risk disclaimer and disclosure statement.

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