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Global and regional stock market risk indices
Our stock market risk benchmarks indicate the risk of global and
regional stock market investments on an aggregated basis in percentage
points. A low percentage indicates a bullish (rather low risk)
environment and vice versa. On the bottom of this webpage you find
detailed information on how these risk indices work.
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in order to receive the current stock market risk indications plus all
stock and bond trading system signals of our timing models.
A. Weekly global / world stock market risk index
Current weekly global stock market risk (101 markets)
as of 11/10/2017
- Next update:
80% - 100%
60% - 80%
40% - 60%
20% - 40%
0% - 20%
B. Weekly regional stock market risk sub indices
The regional stock market risk sub
indices are derivatives of our composite world stock market risk index,
which currently tracks 101 world stock markets.
Risk Sub Index for Western Europe + North America (29 markets)
Risk Sub Index for the Asia/Pacific-Region (23 markets)
Risk Sub Index for Eastern Europe + Russian Federation (16 markets)
Risk Sub Index for Latin America (13 markets)
Risk Sub Index for Middle East + North Africa (12 markets)
Risk Sub Index for Africa (8 markets)
Risk Sub Index for EAFE (Europe, Australia and the Far East) (21 markets)
Risk Sub Index for Emerging markets (24 markets)
Example: Timing global stock markets with our weekly global stock risk index:
We also use our global risk index to time our investments in global stock markets:
BUY criteria: If our risk index is below or equal 50%, we are going to invest in a portfolio of global stock markets. SELL criteria: If our risk index is above 50%, we are moving our money into a cash position on the sidelines.
The next charts are showing hypothetical
trading results from back testing. The back testing period started on
14th of April 1961. These results have certain limitations: Due to the
fact that all the trades included in this back testing have not actually
been executed in realtime, actual results may be different, under or
over compensated for results. Generally hypothetical trading performance
results are prepared with the benefit of hindsight.
These hypothetical returns are
not compounded. That means that this timing strategy does not reinvest
profits. Consequently the hypothetical total return would obviously be
far larger if the returns were compounded or even by utilizing leverage.
No slippage, commissions and dividends were used.
Performance of the "Risk Index <= 50%"-Strategy and of the "Risk Index > 50%"-Strategy:
The blue line shows the cumulated
hypothetical performance of our "Risk Index < 50%"-Strategy in
comparison to the hypothetical performance of a buy-and-hold-approach
(black line). As you can see an investment in global equities - if our
proprietary risk index is below 50% - could outperform a
buy-and-hold-approach on a hypothetical basis.
On the other hand a hypothetical investment in global equities - if our
risk index is above 50% - is not profitable as indicated by the
decreasing cumulated performance (red line).
Hypothetical weekly performance of an international stock index basket, if the Global Stock Market Risk Index (GSMRI) is within a certain risk range (e.g. GSMRI < 20%, i.e. very bullish) in comparison to a Buy-and-Hold-approach:
Hypothetical performance of a strategy, which invests in an international stock index basket, if the Global Stock Market Risk Index (GSMRI) is below or equal 50% and moves to cash/money market, if the GSMRI is above 50%, compared to an Buy-and-Hold-approach:
IMPORTANT: The risk index and the risk index timing strategy are not
intended to provide personal investment advice. The risk index and the
risk index timing strategy have been prepared solely for informational
purposes, and are not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an
offer to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any
particular trading or timing strategy.
The risk rating and the risk index timing strategy do not provide,
imply, or otherwise constitute a guarantee of performance. Therefore it
should not be assumed that future risk ratings will be profitable or
will equal past performance, real, indicated or implied. Past
performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Please also read our detailed risk disclaimer and disclosure statement.