On this web page you will find our stock market risk indices. These benchmarks indicate the risk of global and regional stock market investments on an aggregated basis.

Please visit also our special web pages on the stock market crash of 1987 ("Black Monday", 19.10.1987), stock market crash of 1929 ("Black Thursday", 24.10.1929 + "Black Tuesday", 29.10.1929) and bear market 2000 - 2003.

Subscribe to our free newsletter in order to receive the current stock market crash indication plus all stock and bond trading system signals of our timing models.

A. Weekly global / world stock market risk index

Current weekly global / world stock market risk (97 markets) as of 29.08.2010 - Next update: 05.09.2010
65%	Bearish

Weekly historical data since inception:
Stock market crash indication and risk index - Historical data since 27.05.2002
Global stock market crash indication + risk index

Global stock market crash indication + risk index

Legend:
Very bearish	80% - 100%
Bearish	60% - 80%
Neutral	40% - 60%
Bullish	20% - 40%
Very bullish	0% - 20%

B. Weekly regional stock market risk sub indices
The regional stock market risk sub indices are derivatives of our composite world stock market risk index, which currently tracks 97 world stock markets.

The online publishing of our regional stock market sub risk indices started on 09.05.2005.

Risk Sub Index for Western Europe + North America (28 markets)	90%	Very bearish
Risk Sub Index for the Asia/Pacific-Region (20 markets)	65%	Bearish
Risk Sub Index for Eastern Europe + Russian Federation (17 markets)	57%	Neutral
Risk Sub Index for Latin America (10 markets)	40%	Neutral
Risk Sub Index for Middle East + North Africa (14 markets)	55%	Neutral
Risk Sub Index for Africa (8 markets)	46%	Neutral
Risk Sub Index for EAFE (Europe, Australia and the Far East) (21 markets)	92%	Very bearish
Risk Sub Index for Emerging Markets (24 markets)	49%	Neutral

Weekly historical data since inception:
Stock market crash indication and risk sub indices - Historical data since 09.05.2005

Example: Timing global stock markets with our weekly global stock risk index:

We also use our global risk index to time our investments in global stock markets:

BUY criteria: If our risk index is below 50%, we are going to invest in a portfolio of global stock markets.
SELL criteria: If our risk index is above 50%, we are moving our money into a cash position on the sidelines.

The next charts show hypothetical trading results from back testing. The back testing period started on 02.01.1959. These results have certain limitations: Due to the fact that all the trades included in this back testing have not actually been executed in realtime, actual results may be different, under or over compensated for results. Generally hypothetical trading performance results are prepared with the benefit of hindsight.
These hypothetical returns are not compounded. That means that this timing strategy does not reinvest profits. Consequently the hypothetical total return would obviously be far larger if the returns were compounded or even by utilizing leverage.
No slippage, commissions and dividends were used.

Performance of the "Risk Index <= 50%"-Strategy and of the "Risk Index > 50%"-Strategy:

The blue line shows the cumulated hypothetical performance of our "Risk Index < 50%"-Strategy in comparison to the hypothetical performance of a buy-and-hold-approach (green line). As you can see an investment in global equities - if our proprietary risk index is below 50% - could outperform a buy-and-hold-approach on a hypothetical basis. On the other hand a hypothetical investment in global equities - if our risk index is above 50% - is not profitable as indicated by the decreasing cumulated performance (red line).
Cumulated performance of our global risk index investment strategy since 1959

Cumulated performance of our global risk index investment strategy since 1959

This simple but elegant timing strategy beats the buy and hold-approach on a hypothetical basis -> please compare the blue bar with the green bar! The red bar indicates that equity investments are not profitable if the risk index is above 50%.

Performance of our global risk index investment strategy

Performance of our global risk index investment strategy

IMPORTANT: The risk index and the risk index timing strategy are not intended to provide personal investment advice. The risk index and the risk index timing strategy have been prepared solely for informational purposes, and are not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any particular trading or timing strategy. The risk rating and the risk index timing strategy do not provide, imply, or otherwise constitute a guarantee of performance. Therefore it should not be assumed that future risk ratings will be profitable or will equal past performance, real, indicated or implied. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Please also read our detailed risk disclaimer and disclosure statement.